Welcome to the 2026 NFL offseason, where a starting quarterback might be harder to find than a reasonable Super Bowl take on Twitter. After 11 drafts that saw a quarterback selected first overall nine times, some teams might be out of luck this year, as the 2026 NFL Draft class isn’t exactly overflowing with elite quarterback talent, and the free agent pool is even murkier. So, what’s a QB-needy team to do?
Key Takeaways
- The 2026 NFL Draft class is considered weak at quarterback, with Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza being the presumed top pick.
- The free agent market isn’t much better, with aging veterans like Kirk Cousins and reclamation projects like Malik Willis potentially headlining the available options.
- With limited appealing options, teams might turn to the trade market, with Arizona’s Kyler Murray and Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa as the most intriguing possibilities.
- Several teams, including the Falcons, Colts, Jets, and Steelers, are expected to be in the market for quarterbacks, making for a potentially active and unpredictable offseason.
Is the 2026 Quarterback Draft Class Really That Weak?
The consensus among analysts is that this year’s draft class lacks the star power at quarterback that we’ve seen in recent years. Fernando Mendoza of Indiana is the favorite to be the first quarterback selected, but after him, the options become less clear. Ty Simpson from Alabama and Garrett Nussmeier from LSU are mentioned as possibilities, but neither is considered a sure-fire franchise quarterback. This mirrors the 2022 draft, where Kenny Pickett was the only quarterback taken in the first round. “This is a draft where teams will be looking for value and potential, rather than guaranteed stars,” said ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. “[Ty] Simpson has the potential to be a first-round pick,” Kiper noted, “But there are concerns about his consistency and decision-making.” The lack of highly-rated quarterback prospects could lead teams to explore other avenues for addressing their quarterback needs, such as free agency or the trade market. With Mendoza projected to be the top pick with odds of -200 at DraftKings, it’s clear teams needing a quarterback will have to get creative.
The veteran free agent market doesn’t offer much relief either. While last offseason featured names like Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones, this year’s pool is less enticing. Jones, coming off an Achilles injury that sidelined him for much of the 2025 season, is available, as is an aging Aaron Rodgers. The most sought-after free agent quarterback might be Malik Willis, the Packers’ backup who has shown flashes of potential in limited action. However, Willis lacks extensive starting experience, making him a risky proposition for teams seeking an immediate upgrade. Kirk Cousins, after being released by the Falcons, could also be a target, but his age (37) and recent Achilles injury raise concerns about his long-term viability. With the veteran market looking thin, teams may be forced to overpay for unproven or aging quarterbacks, highlighting the desperation that often accompanies the search for a franchise signal-caller. The veteran minimum salary for a player with 10+ years of experience is $1.375 million for 2026, highlighting the cost-effective nature of a flier on an older player.
Could Kyler Murray or Tua Tagovailoa Be on the Move?
With the draft and free agency markets looking bleak, some teams might turn to the trade market to find their quarterback of the future. Two names that have been generating buzz are Kyler Murray of the Arizona Cardinals and Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins. Both quarterbacks have had success in the NFL, but also have question marks surrounding their long-term futures with their current teams. As Adam Schefter of ESPN reported, the Cardinals are actively seeking a trade partner for Murray, who is currently recovering from a foot injury. Trading Murray would allow the Cardinals to save on dead money and acquire valuable draft capital. However, Murray’s contract, which has three years and roughly $125 million remaining, could be a significant hurdle in trade negotiations. According to Over The Cap, Murray’s contract includes $60 million in guaranteed money, making him a pricey acquisition for any team.
Tagovailoa is also a potential trade candidate, although his situation is more complicated. Tagovailoa has had success in Miami under head coach Mike McDaniel, but his limitations as a passer have been exposed at times. Trading Tagovailoa would be a massive financial undertaking for the Dolphins, as it would create a record-setting $99 million in dead cap. However, if the Dolphins are willing to absorb some of Tagovailoa’s contract, they might be able to find a trade partner willing to take a chance on the former first-round pick. “Tua is a scheme-dependent quarterback, and he needs the right system to thrive,” said NFL analyst Chris Simms. “But in the right situation, he can be a very effective player.” For teams desperate for a quarterback, Murray and Tagovailoa represent the most intriguing options on the trade market, albeit with considerable risk and financial commitment. Tagovailoa had a Pro Football Focus (PFF) grade of 75.9 in 2025, showing his capabilities in the right system.
Players/Teams Mentioned
- Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana: Projected first overall pick in 2026 NFL Draft. Won the Heisman Trophy and national championship in 2025.
- Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals: 28 years old. Seeking a trade partner. Recovering from a foot injury. 2019 Offensive Rookie of the Year. Has $125 million remaining on his contract.
- Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins: 28 years old. Three-year extension. Scheme-dependent quarterback. Has a $39 million base salary for 2026 (fully guaranteed).
- Malik Willis, QB, Green Bay Packers: 26 years old. Six career starts, 79% completion rate, 10.9 yards per attempt. Could command around $26 million per year in free agency.
- Atlanta Falcons: Expected to release Kirk Cousins. Could be in the market for a veteran quarterback to compete with Michael Penix Jr.
What This Means
- For teams needing a QB: The best strategy might be a short-term veteran plus drafting for 2027, as this class is considered weak.
- For fans of the Falcons, Colts, Jets, Steelers, and Dolphins: Get ready for a wild ride, as these teams have the highest probability of QB turnover this offseason. The Jets have +1500 odds to win Super Bowl LXI according to FanDuel.
- For Malik Willis: His limited starts may not matter. A team could pay him $25M+ based on potential alone. He had 261 rushing yards last season with the Packers.
