The 2026 Daytona 500 is upon us, and while Ryan Blaney leads the pack with +850 odds, history shows that anything can happen on the famed Daytona International Speedway. In fact, since 2010, only twice has the pre-race favorite actually won the Daytona 500. Can Blaney buck the trend, or will a longshot steal the show?
Key Takeaways
- Ryan Blaney enters the 2026 Daytona 500 as the favorite with +850 odds, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.
- A proven NASCAR model is fading Joey Logano (+1000), predicting he won’t crack the top 5.
- The model is high on Kyle Busch (+1800), calling him a top-five contender with a better chance to win than his odds suggest.
- Several longshots with odds of +2000 or higher could potentially deliver a huge payday for bettors.
Can Ryan Blaney Overcome the Daytona Favorite Curse?
Ryan Blaney is the man to beat heading into the 2026 Daytona 500, boasting +850 odds according to FanDuel. Blaney, who drives the No. 12 Ford for Team Penske, finished sixth in last year’s NASCAR Cup Series standings. He also has a Daytona 500 runner-up finish in 2020. However, history isn’t exactly on his side. Since 2010, the pre-race favorite has only won the Daytona 500 twice. This historical trend raises the question: Can Blaney overcome the “Daytona favorite curse” and deliver a victory?
One thing Blaney does have going for him is momentum. According to Racing-Reference.info, Blaney has 10 top-5 finishes in his last 36 races, showcasing his consistency on the track. “Daytona is such a wild card race,” said NASCAR analyst Jeff Gluck on a recent episode of the “The Teardown” podcast. “You need a fast car, yes, but you also need a healthy dose of luck to avoid the inevitable wrecks.” The unpredictability of Daytona, coupled with Blaney’s skill, makes him a compelling, yet risky, pick.
Who are the Dark Horses to Watch?
While Blaney and other top contenders like Joey Logano (+1000) and Kyle Larson (+1400) are garnering much of the attention, the Daytona 500 is notorious for producing surprise winners. This year, one driver that the SportsLine model is particularly high on is Kyle Busch, listed at +1800. Despite his odds, the model projects Busch as a top-five finisher, believing he has a better chance of winning than the odds suggest. Busch finished last season strong, securing 10 top-10 finishes, including a fifth-place result in the Phoenix season finale.
Beyond Busch, the model also identifies two additional longshots with odds of +2000 or higher as potential contenders. While their identities remain a secret (available on SportsLine), their presence highlights the depth of talent and the potential for an unexpected victory. The aero package used at Daytona also allows drivers to stick together in large packs and sets up more passing opportunities. This creates an exciting and unpredictable race.
Players/Teams Mentioned
- Ryan Blaney: Currently +850 odds to win the 2026 Daytona 500. Finished 6th in the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series standings.
- Joey Logano: Currently +1000 odds to win the 2026 Daytona 500. 2018, 2022 and 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Champion. Finished 7th in the 2025 standings.
- Kyle Larson: Currently +1400 odds to win the 2026 Daytona 500. 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Champion.
- Kyle Busch: Currently +1800 odds to win the 2026 Daytona 500. Two-time NASCAR Cup Series champion.
What This Means
- For NASCAR fans: Don’t be surprised if a longshot wins. History shows the Daytona 500 is often unpredictable. Focus on drivers with strong superspeedway racing skills.
- For bettors: Consider placing a small wager on a driver with odds of +2000 or higher. The potential payout could be significant. Just do your research.
- For fantasy players: Prioritize drivers who are skilled at avoiding wrecks and gaining positions late in the race. The Daytona 500 is a high-variance event, so don’t overvalue drivers based on their starting position.
[Footer]
Source: www.cbssports.com
[Suggested Tags]
